Architecting Fail-Safe Supply Chains / Networks

Disruptions are large-scale stochastic events that rarely happen but have a major effect on supply networks’ topology. Some examples include: air traffic being suspended due to weather or terrorism, labor unions strike, sanctions imposed or lifted, company mergers, etc. Variations are small-scale stochastic events that frequently happen but only have a trivial effect on the efficiency of flow planning in supply networks. Some examples include: fluctuations in market demands (e.g. demand is always stochastic in competitive markets) and performance of production facilities (e.g. there is not any perfect production system in reality). A fail-safe supply network is one that mitigates the impact of variations and disruptions and provides an acceptable level of service. This is achieved by keeping connectivity in its topology against disruptions (structurally fail-safe) and coordinating the flow through the facilities against variations (operationally fail-safe). In this talk, I will show that to have a structurally fail-safe supply network, its topology should be robust against disruptions by positioning mitigation strategies and be resilient in executing these strategies. Considering “Flexibility” as a risk mitigation strategy, I answer the question “What are the best flexibility levels and flexibility speeds for facilities in structurally fail-safe supply networks?” Also, I will show that to have an operationally fail-safe supply network, its flow dynamics should be reliable against demand- and supply-side variations. In the presence of these variations, I answer the question “What is the most profitable flow dynamics throughout a supply network that is reliable against variations?” The method is verified using data from an engine maker. Findings include: i) there is a tradeoff between robustness and resilience in profit-based supply networks; ii) this tradeoff is more stable in larger supply networks with higher product supply quantities; and iii) supply networks with higher reliability in their flow planning require more flexibilities to be robust. Finally, I will touch upon possible extensions of the work into non-profit relief networks for disaster management

Data analytics to evaluate the impact of infectious disease on economy: Case study of COVID-19 pandemic

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is a new strain of coronavirus that is regarded as a respiratory disease and is transmittable among humans. At present, the disease has caused a pandemic, and COVID-19 cases are ballooning out of control. The impact of such turbulent situations can be controlled by tracking the patterns of infected and death cases through accurate prediction and by taking precautions accordingly. We collected worldwide COVID-19 case information and successfully predicted infected victims and possible death cases around the world and in the United States. In addition, we analyzed some leading stock market shares and successfully forecast their trends. We also scrutinized the share market price by proper reasoning and considered the state of affairs of COVID-19, including geographical dispersity. We publicly release our developed dashboard that presents statistical data of COVID-19 cases, shows predicted results, and reveals the impact of COVID19 on leading companies and different countries\u27 job markets

A Survey on Secure and Private Federated Learning Using Blockchain: Theory and Application in Resource-constrained Computing

Federated Learning (FL) has gained widespread popularity in recent years due to the fast booming of advanced machine learning and artificial intelligence along with emerging security and privacy threats. FL enables efficient model generation from local data storage of the edge devices without revealing the sensitive data to any entities. While this paradigm partly mitigates the privacy issues of users' sensitive data, the performance of the FL process can be threatened and reached a bottleneck due to the growing cyber threats and privacy violation techniques. To expedite the proliferation of FL process, the integration of blockchain for FL environments has drawn prolific attention from the people of academia and industry. Blockchain has the potential to prevent security and privacy threats with its decentralization, immutability, consensus, and transparency characteristic. However, if the blockchain mechanism requires costly computational resources, then the resource-constrained FL clients cannot be involved in the training. Considering that, this survey focuses on reviewing the challenges, solutions, and future directions for the successful deployment of blockchain in resource-constrained FL environments. We comprehensively review variant blockchain mechanisms that are suitable for FL process and discuss their trade-offs for a limited resource budget. Further, we extensively analyze the cyber threats that could be observed in a resource-constrained FL environment, and how blockchain can play a key role to block those cyber attacks. To this end, we highlight some potential solutions towards the coupling of blockchain and federated learning that can offer high levels of reliability, data privacy, and distributed computing performance

​Resilient supply chain network design under competition : a case study

This research, motivated by a real-life case study in a highly competitive automobile supply chain, experimentally studies the impact of disruption on the competitiveness of supply chains. The studied supply chain faces two major risks: disruption of suppliers and tough competition from competitors. Any disruption in upstream level of the supply chain leads to an inability to meet demand downstream and causes market share to be lost to the competitors. For such a setting, a resilient topology is redesigned that can recover from and react quickly to any disruptive incidents. To this aim, we speculate there are three policies that can be used to mitigate the disruption risk, namely keeping emergency stock at the retailers, reserving back-up capacity at the suppliers, and multiple-sourcing. The problem is addressed using a mixed integer non-linear model to find the most profitable network and mitigation policies. We design a piecewise linear method to solve the model. Based on the data extracted from an automotive supply chain, practical insights of the research are extracted in a controlled experiment. Our analysis suggests that implementing risk mitigation policies not only work to the advantage of the supply chain by sustaining and improving its market share but also benefit customers by stabilizing retail prices in the market. Using the case study, we analyze the contribution of each risk strategy in stabilizing the supply chain's profit, market share, and retail price. Our analysis reveals that downstream “emergency stock” is the most preferable risk mitigation strategy if suppliers are unreliable

Conservation planning in an uncertain climate: Identifying projects that remain valuable and feasible across future scenarios

Conservation actors face the challenge of allocating limited resources despite uncertainty about future climate conditions. In many cases, the potential value and feasibility of proposed projects vary across climate scenarios. A key goal is to identify areas where conservation outcomes can balance both environmental and human needs. We developed a conservation prioritization framework that jointly considers the value and feasibility of candidate projects across future climate scenarios. We then applied this framework to the challenge of meeting environmental flow targets across the Red River basin of the south-central United States. To estimate the conservation feasibility of meeting environmental flow goals in a river reach in each climate scenario, we used a basin-wide hydrologic planning tool to quantify the reduction in societal water usage needed to meet environmental flow targets. To estimate the biodiversity value of each river reach in each climate scenario, we used climate-driven species distribution models and species’ conservation status. We found that river reaches in the east-central portion of the basin may be good candidates for conservation investments, because they had high biodiversity value and high sociopolitical feasibility in all future climate scenarios. In contrast, sites in the arid western reaches of the basin had high biodiversity value, but low feasibility of achieving environmental flow goals. Our framework should have broad applicability given that the value and feasibility of conservation projects vary across climate scenarios in ecosystems around the world. It may serve as a coarse filter to identify sites for more detailed analyses and could be integrated with complementarity-based approaches to conservation planning to balance species’ representation across projects. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article

Spatial planning for water sustainability projects under climate uncertainty: balancing human and environmental water needs

Societies worldwide make large investments in the sustainability of integrated human-freshwater systems, but uncertainty about water supplies under climate change poses a major challenge. Investments in infrastructure, water regulation, or payments for ecosystem services may boost water availability, but may also yield poor returns on investment if directed to locations where water supply unexpectedly fluctuates due to shifting climate. How should investments in water sustainability be allocated across space and among different types of projects? Given the high costs of investments in water sustainability, decision-makers are typically risk-intolerant, and considerable uncertainty about future climate conditions can lead to decision paralysis. Here, we use mathematical optimization models to find Pareto-optimal satisfaction of human and environmental water needs across a large drought-prone river basin for a range of downscaled climate projections. We show how water scarcity and future uncertainty vary independently by location, and that joint consideration of both factors can provide guidance on how to allocate water sustainability investments. Locations with high water scarcity and low uncertainty are good candidates for high-cost, high-reward investments; locations with high scarcity but also high uncertainty may benefit most from low regret investments that minimize the potential for stranded assets if water supply increases. Given uncertainty in climate projections in many regions worldwide, our analysis illustrates how explicit consideration of uncertainty may help to identify the most effective strategies for investments in the long-term sustainability of integrated human-freshwater systems.The project described in this publication was supported by the Science Applications division of the Southwest Region of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, and by Grant No. G17AP00120, Balancing Water Usage and Ecosystem Outcomes Under Drought and Climate Change: Enhancing an Optimization Model for the Red River, from the United States Geological Survey. Open Access fees paid for in whole or in part by the University of Oklahoma Libraries.Ye

Developing lean and responsive supply chains : a robust model for alternative risk mitigation strategies in supply chain designs

This paper investigates how organization should design their supply chains (SCs) and use risk mitigation strategies to meet different performance objectives. To do this, we develop two mixed integer nonlinear (MINL) lean and responsive models for a four-tier SC to understand these four strategies: i) holding back-up emergency stocks at the DCs, ii) holding back-up emergency stock for transshipment to all DCs at a strategic DC (for risk pooling in the SC), iii) reserving excess capacity in the facilities, and iv) using other facilities in the SC’s network to back-up the primary facilities. A new method for designing the network is developed which works based on the definition of path to cover all possible disturbances. To solve the two proposed MINL models, a linear regression approximation is suggested to linearize the models; this technique works based on a piecewise linear transformation. The efficiency of the solution technique is tested for two prevalent distribution functions. We then explore how these models operate using empirical data from an automotive SC. This enables us to develop a more comprehensive risk mitigation framework than previous studies and show how it can be used to determine the optimal SC design and risk mitigation strategies given the uncertainties faced by practitioners and the performance objectives they wish to meet